It's a circular calculation and therefore a self-defeating one If the REASON that the rate of infection has gone down is that you've locked down businesses, then opening them up again because your "alert level" is lower just puts you back where you were
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What your "alert level" should be based on is independent variables Things like hospital capacity, the existence of a vaccine or an effective drug treatment Things that would require the government to actually do something to change instead of just waiting around
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I think you're putting more thought into it than they did
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