Because no matter how hard it is to adapt to the lockdown, adapting to mass illness and death is bound to be harder.
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Lockdown or something like it may well be the best minimisation strategy—depending on where you are. Indeed I'm inclined to think it is here
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
But it's far from obvious, and I'm suspicious of this kind of armchair reasoning.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
A temporary wave of mass death (especially if they're largely people who would soon have died anyway) could well be easier to recover from.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
And as I've pointed out: just as both forks in our path lead to economic ruin, both lead to mass illness and death.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
And there is diminishing marginal disutility—in terms of economic impact—on these deaths. That is to say...
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
The economic impact of 10,000 deaths will not be anything like twice as bad as the economic impact of 5,000.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
Right, it’s MORE disruptive. That’s literally how diminishing marginal utility works. Each inch improved matters less, each inch backslid matters more. If ten thousand people die unexpectedly, moreover, there are discontinuities. Like “we run out of morgue space”
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Replying to @lawnerdbarak @RayTski and
Henry Fitzgerald Retweeted Henry Fitzgerald
I've addressed both those points elsewhere. On the first:https://twitter.com/HenryTarquin/status/1256010077250523138 …
Henry Fitzgerald added,
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @lawnerdbarak and
On the second: yes, there are discontinuities. But the same applies in both directions...
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I don't care about this particular argument as a whole Henry I only brought it up because the idea that the country as a whole experiences "diminishing marginal disutility of deaths" is so staggeringly stupid and evil it needs to be called out
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Replying to @arthur_affect @HenryTarquin and
Over what interval does that obtain, Henry If killing the first 5,000 people was worse than killing the next 10,000 then by the time a million people have died no one will care at all right Might as well just kill everyone by that point
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Replying to @arthur_affect @HenryTarquin and
Yeah, if your goal is minimizing unhappiness, you can really make it all go away if the Universe spontaneously collapses to a lower vacuum state or something.
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