Because no matter how hard it is to adapt to the lockdown, adapting to mass illness and death is bound to be harder.
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Lockdown or something like it may well be the best minimisation strategy—depending on where you are. Indeed I'm inclined to think it is here
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
But it's far from obvious, and I'm suspicious of this kind of armchair reasoning.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
A temporary wave of mass death (especially if they're largely people who would soon have died anyway) could well be easier to recover from.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
And as I've pointed out: just as both forks in our path lead to economic ruin, both lead to mass illness and death.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
And there is diminishing marginal disutility—in terms of economic impact—on these deaths. That is to say...
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
The economic impact of 10,000 deaths will not be anything like twice as bad as the economic impact of 5,000.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
One thing is likely: in five or ten years, we'll probably know for sure what we should have done.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
At that point, countless people who by pure fluke lucked on something vaguely like the right answer, will say: "Aha! I knew it"
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
And I'll admit I'll be best placed to do this, having flirted with several very different proposals, without being able to commit to any one
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Yes, acting like all possible answers to a question are equally plausible and always taking the middle position is a favored argument-winning tactic of the stupid and the cowardly who have nothing important at stake
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