Yeah so given the at least one-week delay in any effects from policy changes showing up in the numbers, and given that we just soared past the 60k mark with no big change in the overall direction of the death rate, I'm very confident we're gonna make it to at least 200k
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And honestly if the states go ahead with their May reopening plans then the best case scenario is plateauing at that 200k point followed by a later bounce
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But yeah it's amazing to watch how shamelessly they've kept revising their milestones Originally it was supposed to top out at the 15 cases we already had ("You're gonna see it go very quickly down to zero")
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Now they've preemptively set up all these arbitrary milestones for what counts as "success" if the deaths stop before then and we keep whizzing by them in favor of new ones Very soon they'll turn 1 million into the new 200k the way 200k replaced 60k
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End of conversation
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I'm still certain it's going to be between 1 and 1.5 million, when all is said & done (no idea on the when exactly, but I'm accounting for how many deaths aren't being accounted/reported)
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