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arthur_affect's profile
Arthur Chu
Arthur Chu
Arthur Chu
Verified account
@arthur_affect

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Arthur ChuVerified account

@arthur_affect

Mad genius, comedian, actor, and freelance voiceover artist broadcasting from the distant shores of Lake Erie (he/him)

Broadview Heights, Ohio
arthur-chu.com
Joined August 2009

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    Arthur Chu‏Verified account @arthur_affect 30 Apr 2020

    Yeah so given the at least one-week delay in any effects from policy changes showing up in the numbers, and given that we just soared past the 60k mark with no big change in the overall direction of the death rate, I'm very confident we're gonna make it to at least 200k

    6:07 AM - 30 Apr 2020
    • 8 Retweets
    • 45 Likes
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    4 replies 8 retweets 45 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Arthur Chu‏Verified account @arthur_affect 30 Apr 2020

        That's a *best case scenario*, like the goal is to fight like hell to keep it closer to that and not to 1 million

        2 replies 0 retweets 27 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Arthur Chu‏Verified account @arthur_affect 30 Apr 2020

        And honestly if the states go ahead with their May reopening plans then the best case scenario is plateauing at that 200k point followed by a later bounce

        1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Arthur Chu‏Verified account @arthur_affect 30 Apr 2020

        But yeah it's amazing to watch how shamelessly they've kept revising their milestones Originally it was supposed to top out at the 15 cases we already had ("You're gonna see it go very quickly down to zero")

        1 reply 3 retweets 30 likes
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      5. Arthur Chu‏Verified account @arthur_affect 30 Apr 2020

        Now they've preemptively set up all these arbitrary milestones for what counts as "success" if the deaths stop before then and we keep whizzing by them in favor of new ones Very soon they'll turn 1 million into the new 200k the way 200k replaced 60k

        2 replies 4 retweets 29 likes
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      6. End of conversation
      1. Dominic‏ @Dominic11B4 30 Apr 2020
        Replying to @arthur_affect

        Honestly, one of the thing that endlessly frustrate me is the 1-2 week delay that create a lot of wiggle room for professional bulshiters to obfuscate how the pandemic progress by pretending any correlations must be immediate.

        0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      2. Justice Herbert-Wattie‏ @Justiceherbertw 30 Apr 2020
        Replying to @arthur_affect

        Given that the UK has had 26K deaths but 10% of the confirmed cases, it wouldnt surprise me whatsoever if the 'actual' number in the US was over 100K already

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Merrick Green‏ @MerrickGreenVM 30 Apr 2020
        Replying to @Justiceherbertw @arthur_affect

        https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theonion.com/trump-accuses-new-york-of-padding-state-s-mortality-rat-1843113132/amp …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. ‘Cause We Done‏ @classicpoodle 30 Apr 2020
        Replying to @arthur_affect

        I agree

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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