Others in this thread claim to know how deadly COVID-19 is to a percentage point or so. Let's assume they're right.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
This means that the worst-case cost of COVID-19 directly is a relatively known quantity: 1.5% mortality (or whatever it is)...
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
Plus great unpleasantness for, let's say, 20% of survivors. Worst case: we all get it. That's a lot of death and a lot of pain.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
On the other hand, the kind of economic collapse one might is less bounded. How bad is the "worst case" scenario? Harder to tell.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
But I can certainly imagine it being worse: famine (somewhere or other), rioting, deprivation, prolonged penury, etc.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
And then again, if the death rate is as precisely known as all that AND no cure or vaccine can be foreseen...
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
Then you're going to get a comparably bad death toll ANYWAY. So in a way, the absolute cost of C-19 is irrelevant...
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
What's more relevant is the worst-case scenario MINUS the best-case. The same applies on the economic side, of course.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
But here, at least, it strikes me that the gulf between worst-case and possible best-case is much less wide.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
I've pontificated enough: my point is that I know those who fear the worst economically more than I do, are neither crazy nor dumb.
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No, they're evil They're hoping to preserve the equity value of their businesses before they can cash out and run to a fortress somewhere by fucking someone else over and they don't care how many nameless pawns die in the process
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Replying to @arthur_affect @HenryTarquin and
There's a number of people who ARE crazy or dumb who make useful idiots for them but it's the evil ones pulling the strings who should really hold our attention
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Replying to @arthur_affect @HenryTarquin and
Let's also put it another way: the lockdown stuff wasn't some inevitable response. It was a direct result of inaction on the part of the leadership in the US, which took the position that keeping the economy open was paramount.
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