What's more relevant is the worst-case scenario MINUS the best-case. The same applies on the economic side, of course.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
But here, at least, it strikes me that the gulf between worst-case and possible best-case is much less wide.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
I've pontificated enough: my point is that I know those who fear the worst economically more than I do, are neither crazy nor dumb.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @arthur_affect and
They ignore the economic devastation of a no-lockdown scenario. They ignore the economic devastation of a no-lockdown scenario. They ignore the economic devastation of a no-lockdown scenario. They ignore the economic devastation of a no-lockdown scenario.
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Replying to @RayTski @HenryTarquin and
"If I ignore half the bad things, this option looks reasonable!" Yes, but there's bad things you're ignoring.
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Replying to @RayTski @arthur_affect and
What you're saying is true, and it's a sin everyone who feels certainty in this debate is generally guilty of.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
That's why I'm largely considering no-lockdown proponents who acknowledge the uncertainty—AND what you say they don't acknowledge.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
Yes, lockdown AND no-lockdown have bad economic consequences. One can acknowledge this and still think the former RISKS being worse.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
Yes, if you are incredibly stupid
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Replying to @arthur_affect @HenryTarquin and
I cannot express how stupid this is Stupid stupid stupid, willfully head up your ass stupid The idea that the consequences of letting the virus run rampant are "bounded" but the consequences of trying to stop it are "unbounded" Holy fucking shit you motherfucker
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If you don't look at a bland statement like "1.5% death rate among the whole population" and see multitudes of "unbounded" knock-on effects contained within, "economic" and otherwise, you are too FUCKING STUPID to talk about anything
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