Again, you can think whatever you want, if it's not backed up by good reasons, it's not a well founded opinion.
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Replying to @RayTski @arthur_affect and
Henry Fitzgerald Retweeted Henry Fitzgerald
And it's not hard to see what possible reasons one might have for holding this position:https://twitter.com/HenryTarquin/status/1255810924604088320 …
Henry Fitzgerald added,
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
Others in this thread claim to know how deadly COVID-19 is to a percentage point or so. Let's assume they're right.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
This means that the worst-case cost of COVID-19 directly is a relatively known quantity: 1.5% mortality (or whatever it is)...
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
Plus great unpleasantness for, let's say, 20% of survivors. Worst case: we all get it. That's a lot of death and a lot of pain.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
On the other hand, the kind of economic collapse one might is less bounded. How bad is the "worst case" scenario? Harder to tell.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
But I can certainly imagine it being worse: famine (somewhere or other), rioting, deprivation, prolonged penury, etc.
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
And then again, if the death rate is as precisely known as all that AND no cure or vaccine can be foreseen...
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
Then you're going to get a comparably bad death toll ANYWAY. So in a way, the absolute cost of C-19 is irrelevant...
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Replying to @HenryTarquin @RayTski and
You are so FUCKING stupid Have you paid no attention to what the biggest point of "flatten the curve" is? That there's a worse than worst case scenario where a too-fast spike collapses the medical system entirely? Doctors and nurses getting sick en masse?
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You sure as fuck aren't going to see a ceiling of the death rate at the 1.5% who were "gonna die eventually" if that happens You might actually get your Black Death-style full purge of double digits of the populace
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Replying to @arthur_affect @HenryTarquin and
Henry, the death rate is not (as you suggest) fixed. It’s extremely variable across the world. It depends on the shape of the curve and the capacity of health systems. If you’re over 60 and you get this, and you cannot get access to an ICU bed, you are *very* likely to die
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Replying to @viveka @arthur_affect and
So anyone making an argument that the epidemic should be allowed to grow at a rate that would overwhelm the health system is not making sense. Both economic and human consequences would be far worse than any other scenario.
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