Therefore, they *do not* statistically represent the 330 MILLION people of the country the way a random sample would. That 25% infected? Is of people who are already considered *likely to be infected*.
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Replying to @TheWeaseKing @arthur_affect and
It doesn’t need reflect the population to in order to demonstrate that we’re not seeing the fatality rate anticipated. If it’s HALF A MILLION and there is no increase in the normal rate of death among that group, it’s enough. Mortality is measured per 100,000
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Replying to @NancyARandazzo @TheWeaseKing and
What we're seeing right now are deaths of people who were most likely infected 2-3 weeks ago, then tested 1-2 weeks ago. Either the fatality rate is *much higher* than anticipated, or the pool of infected people is *much larger* than the number of known positives.
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Replying to @eaton @NancyARandazzo and
The wide window of asymptomatic spread — the time when someone is infected, infecting others, but showing no symptoms — is what makes it dangerous in an environment where testing has been driven primarily by the emergence of symptoms.
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Replying to @eaton @TheWeaseKing and
I understand this information. Pneumonia is lethal, a top killer in the death rate. “Pneumonia” encompasses bacterial, viral, fungal, x-ray confirmed respiratory failure. What’s wrong with seeing the covid death rate compared to pneumonia?
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Replying to @NancyARandazzo @eaton and
Like, if we had a pie called “pneumonia” and one slice was flu, one slice was bacterial, one slice is covid-19; is the pie itself, the number of respiratory deaths, growing? Do some scientists have access to a live database?
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Replying to @NancyARandazzo @eaton and
Why the fuck would you assume there was a fixed size pneumonia pie? Why would such a thing exist? What would put that literally insane notion in your head, that there ever was a divinely enforced pneumonia maximum for any given year
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Replying to @arthur_affect @NancyARandazzo and
If there is a new source of infections that cause pneumonia, there will be more pneumonia The viruses and bacteria don't all have a big group meeting where they adjust their schedules to make sure they don't step on each other's territory
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Replying to @arthur_affect @eaton and
It’s called the death rate. If you list the top 10 causes of death, there are differentials for each. Not every person who commits suicide is a single, divorced male over 55; but they are the biggest slice of the suicide pie
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Replying to @NancyARandazzo @eaton and
Yeah and that rate isn't some kind of magical law, when circumstances change the rate goes up There is nothing that would cause the rate of pneumonia from flu to go down to "compensate" for the fact that we have coronavirus now New things happen and things change
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The sheer suicidal insanity of people saying "You can't *prove* that a new virus means more people will die until it actually happens, how do you know COVID-19 isn't just 'replacing' other pneumonia deaths" My God
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Replying to @arthur_affect @NancyARandazzo and
If Britain during the Blitz had said "A certain number of people die in explosions every year, from gas leaks and mishandling chemicals and so forth, how do we know German bombs aren't just a new slice of the same sized pie of explosion-related deaths"
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Replying to @arthur_affect @NancyARandazzo and
God Nassim Taleb is an asshole but I'm developing some respect for just how angry he was when he wrote Black Swan Historically the most predictable thing about the world is new things happen and things change, but people refuse to accept it because it hurts their brains
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End of conversation
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