You don't understand what a sampling bias is at all, do you. Look, those 500k? They're people who are suspected of being contaminated. Either they're showing symptoms, or they've been in contact with people who have.
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The sheer suicidal insanity of people saying "You can't *prove* that a new virus means more people will die until it actually happens, how do you know COVID-19 isn't just 'replacing' other pneumonia deaths" My God
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If Britain during the Blitz had said "A certain number of people die in explosions every year, from gas leaks and mishandling chemicals and so forth, how do we know German bombs aren't just a new slice of the same sized pie of explosion-related deaths"
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From 1347-1351 nobody in the world died from war, hunger, old age, accidents, etc. Because everyone had agreed to give the Black Death the biggest slice of the pie.
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The only way that would happen is if the death rate gets close to 100% among people who aren't so thoroughly quarantined as to avoid all infectious disease, which would be the nightmare scenario.
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