it's especially low considering we're in a recession right now. I mean, it could be a short recession.but when you shutter entire industries in multiple states, that's a recession.https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1239768921647058945 …
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restaurant industry, basically all live entertainment, movie theaters, conference venues, all seeing revenue in multiple states halve or worse; stock market in unprecedented freefall
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I don't know what you think a recession looks like if not that. it's semiartificially imposed...but also not really since there's a massive natural disaster involved.
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the question isn't "is a recession coming?" it's "how long is the recession we're in going to last?"
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if a majority of economists are really predicting we won't enter a recession when we're already in a recession, I feel like we may need better economists.
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at this point we're in, "70% of veterinarians can't identify a dog" territory. wtf?
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Replying to @nberlat
I had an argument with my mom about this because she reads the Economist. Apparently it's not a recession unless there's two quarters of negative growth. But like COME ON
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Replying to @BootlegGirl @nberlat
To be fair, there does need to be some kind of time requirement on it. A flash crash that lasts 10 seconds isn't a recession. A crash like we're in now, that lasts days to weeks, does that count? It's still likely the effects can reverse in a matter of weeks, too.
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Even if we have a "recovery" it's likely to be the deceptive kind whether the stock market rebounds but a lot of people who lost their jobs and had their lives disrupted are still fucked (a "jobless recovery")
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I mean, sure, but they didn't ask the economists if there would be a jobless recovery or what the economy will look like in 6 months. They only asked if there would be a recession with its own narrow definition.
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