I don't see any particular reason to be obsessed with this yet. Polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania have been pretty solid, and there's plenty of options for the last few electoral votes.
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Can't rule out a tie.
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I disagree on the basis that the voters he’s most likely to best Hillary’s performance with in that scenario are heavily concentrated in states that were close
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Still, though democrat pollsters later talked about the election, and many voters in states that went red in 16 told the pollsters face to face that they weren't willing to vote for a woman.
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