Correct me if I'm wrong -
A: No one has ever won the popular vote in the first two states and not been the party's nominee
B: Bernie is the first EVER from EITHER party to win ALL of the first 3 in Popular Vote
#BernieWon #Bernie2020 #BernieWinsNevada
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That's what I tend to think, too
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Absolute predictions is doomed, yes, but forecasting isn't. It's Nate Silver's career and he's good at it. Humans are distressingly predictable, as are demographic groups. Like you can predict Sanders will have a tougher time in the south and add that to your forecast.
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It's a matter of separating signal from noise and never making absolute proclamations that Someone Is Going To Win. But with enough information, you can reasonably suss out where candidates will have easier/harder times and what that means for their chances.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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there was a whole xkcd comic about this - every single president has been the first something. hmm, this means that no president has ever not been the first of anything
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