Arpan Gupta

@arpang74

Interested in Finance and Tech.

New York, NY
Vrijeme pridruživanja: travanj 2009.

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  1. 1. stu 2019.

    Based off data from predictit's orderbooks, you could increase this probability to 10% from a (relatively meager) investment of a couple thousand dollars.

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  2. 1. stu 2019.

    This may skew gambling markets. Andrew Yang is currently trading at a 7% probability of winning the democratic nomination on predictit. This seems overly optimistic based off polling numbers.

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  3. 1. stu 2019.

    Media pundits, however, tend to quote political gambling markets in their reports. This incentives candidates (or their supporters) to try and move the markets in favor of a particular candidate (to make it seem like the candidate is winning).

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  4. 1. stu 2019.

    One reason for this is that political gambling markets still don't have much liquidity, so there isn't much incentive for gambling sharks to enter the markets

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  5. 1. stu 2019.

    Political Gambling markets are still extremely inefficient. Using insider information to gamble is allowed in these markets but insider information is not usually priced into gambling odds (like it is for sports betting for ex).

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  6. 1. stu 2019.
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