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Based off data from predictit's orderbooks, you could increase this probability to 10% from a (relatively meager) investment of a couple thousand dollars.
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This may skew gambling markets. Andrew Yang is currently trading at a 7% probability of winning the democratic nomination on predictit. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination … This seems overly optimistic based off polling numbers.
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Media pundits, however, tend to quote political gambling markets in their reports. This incentives candidates (or their supporters) to try and move the markets in favor of a particular candidate (to make it seem like the candidate is winning).
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One reason for this is that political gambling markets still don't have much liquidity, so there isn't much incentive for gambling sharks to enter the markets
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Political Gambling markets are still extremely inefficient. Using insider information to gamble is allowed in these markets but insider information is not usually priced into gambling odds (like it is for sports betting for ex).
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Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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