You'll rarely find a sudden stop in employment growth like what you find in retail around 2017.pic.twitter.com/VYg1kDvTZr
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You'll rarely find a sudden stop in employment growth like what you find in retail around 2017.pic.twitter.com/VYg1kDvTZr
For the bottom half of the labor market, this was a major event. Retail constitutes > 25% of employment for those in the bottom half of the labor market.
At the same time, it is remarkable that this rather sizable shock to demand in the bottom half of the labor market has not had much impact on overall employment numbers, at least from an aggregate perspective. That's quite important as well.
Here's the spatial distribution of the retail slowdown: this includes warehousing and transportation so it's broader (and includes offsets from Amazon, etc.). Quite stark too.pic.twitter.com/daSgEPEkIO
BTW, here is warehousing and transportation. As you can see, employment in that sector mostly stopped growing in the past year. So whatever substitution may be occurring with Amazon/online through growth in warehousing jobs, in the last year it's not helping much.pic.twitter.com/65ufPRg02d
Why did this happen?
TBH, we don't know. But the 2 biggest likely factors are online retailing and automation.
Much of this can be attributed to brick and mortar stores being absolutely terrible shopping experiences. Used to be that ‘I can have it now’ outweighed the shipping time from Amazon. Not anymore. I’ll gladly wait two days to not have to go to Microcenter.
Retail jobs derided as crap when rising, and yet lamented when flat.
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