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Reduction in Firearm Injuries during NRA Annual Conventions 1/N
Our new @NEJM study
- 20% reduction in gun injuries during convention dates vs identical days in surrounding 3 weeks
- Largest reductions in men, who comprise majority of convention attendeeshttp://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc1712773?query=featured_secondary#.Wpcnu9rNR_4.twitter …
2/N - Largest reductions in states w/ high gun ownership - Largest reductions when convention is held in a given individual's state in a given year (hypothesis: conventions are easier to attend) - Data: large privately insured population, ~75 million visits over 9 years
3/N - Mechanism: Unknown but possibly due to brief reductions in overall gun use during convention dates, e.g., due to convention attendance itself, brief closures of venues where guns may be used (ranges, hunting grounds), or lower use if gun use sometimes occurs in groups
4/N - Are estimates plausible? I.e., a 20% reduction when only a couple percent of gun owners may attend conventions? - Hard to say. Depends on distribution of use among gun owners. Need to know typical use (which drives injury risk) among convention goers vs. non-goers
5/5 What does this mean? - Interesting way to show risks associated with gun use. Even among plausibly experienced and trained users, risks are present, just as driving a car poses non-zero risk even among expert drivers. - Findings should be replicated
Awesome study. Way to make evidence when they won’t let us
Way to “create” evidence. From almost nothing
Was I the one with striking criticism of Harvard this am?
Ben please behave
I grew up with guns and was NRA member for half my life- nobody of my ilk I have ever known has been to NRA convention. This smacks of complete spuriousness to me. What is total population of firearms handlers and what proportion went to NRA conv? No mechanism no prior =no truth
And you might suspect the ones who attended might be the safest not the most dangerous handlers. Good gravy
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