This is just obviously true, no? Keep in mind: Russian ad spend on Facebook ≠ total Russian election effortshttps://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1058217034184413185 …
Writer at @WIRED. Author of NYT bestseller 'Chaos Monkeys'. Formerly @Facebook, @YCombinator, @GoldmanSachs. Yes, I live on a boat and in a yurt. 

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Dean Eckles Retweeted Teddy Schleifer
This is just obviously true, no? Keep in mind: Russian ad spend on Facebook ≠ total Russian election effortshttps://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1058217034184413185 …
Dean Eckles added,
A nice example of where doing the math — about the scale of Russian ad buys vs. other advertising about the presidential election — helps. It is implausible that a few $100k in ad buys tipped the election. Experts like @antoniogm @dbroockman presumably agree.
You might be right, but it's important to remember that it would have only taken ~0.8 percentage-point shift toward HRC in 3 states to flip the election.
That is to say: "tipping the 2016 election" wouldn't require a "big difference" in voter behavior
When 70k votes decide an election in a country of 350M a lot of things are a but-for cause.
Say all the ad spend was in exactly the right states. Still wouldn't that be the lowest cost-per-vote ever estimated? Aren't most estimates for say turnout at least 10 times higher?
Maybe, don't know this literature that well. But can we really assume it's a homogeneous effect over time? 2016 was crazy weird, and I don't think we can model how these ads interacted with all the other events that happened at the time.
We are talking less than $1/vote. I know of no credible studies getting anywhere close to that. I am not saying it is impossible. But it is not particularly plausible.
I pointed to TV ad persuasion estimate of 1-3/10,000 exposures here https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/fake-news-and-bots-may-be-worrisome-but-their-political-power-is-overblown.amp.html …. Given FB ads/posts are lower impact, I’d guess effect was order of magnitude lower. Hard to get to 80k votes at Russian volume. @johnmsides quotes pol who spent more on FB for NV AG cand.
I agree with everything @deaneckles is saying
When is that not true?
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