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antoniogm's profile
Antonio García Martínez
Antonio García Martínez
Antonio García Martínez
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@antoniogm

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Antonio García MartínezVerified account

@antoniogm

Writer at @WIRED. Author of NYT bestseller 'Chaos Monkeys'. Formerly @Facebook, @YCombinator, @GoldmanSachs. Yes, I live on a boat and in a yurt. 🇺🇸🇪🇸

Orcas Island, WA
antoniogarciamartinez.com
Joined December 2007

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    1. Matt Blackwell‏ @matt_blackwell Nov 2
      Replying to @deaneckles @antoniogm @dbroockman

      You might be right, but it's important to remember that it would have only taken ~0.8 percentage-point shift toward HRC in 3 states to flip the election.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Matt Blackwell‏ @matt_blackwell Nov 2
      Replying to @matt_blackwell @deaneckles and

      That is to say: "tipping the 2016 election" wouldn't require a "big difference" in voter behavior

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Andrew Baker‏ @Andrew___Baker Nov 2
      Replying to @matt_blackwell @deaneckles and

      When 70k votes decide an election in a country of 350M a lot of things are a but-for cause.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Dean Eckles‏ @deaneckles Nov 2
      Replying to @Andrew___Baker @matt_blackwell and

      Say all the ad spend was in exactly the right states. Still wouldn't that be the lowest cost-per-vote ever estimated? Aren't most estimates for say turnout at least 10 times higher?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Andrew Baker‏ @Andrew___Baker Nov 2
      Replying to @deaneckles @matt_blackwell and

      Maybe, don't know this literature that well. But can we really assume it's a homogeneous effect over time? 2016 was crazy weird, and I don't think we can model how these ads interacted with all the other events that happened at the time.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Dean Eckles‏ @deaneckles Nov 2
      Replying to @Andrew___Baker @matt_blackwell and

      We are talking less than $1/vote. I know of no credible studies getting anywhere close to that. I am not saying it is impossible. But it is not particularly plausible.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Brendan Nyhan‏Verified account @BrendanNyhan Nov 2
      Replying to @deaneckles @Andrew___Baker and

      I pointed to TV ad persuasion estimate of 1-3/10,000 exposures here https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/fake-news-and-bots-may-be-worrisome-but-their-political-power-is-overblown.amp.html …. Given FB ads/posts are lower impact, I’d guess effect was order of magnitude lower. Hard to get to 80k votes at Russian volume. @johnmsides quotes pol who spent more on FB for NV AG cand.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    8. Brendan Nyhan‏Verified account @BrendanNyhan Nov 2
      Replying to @BrendanNyhan @deaneckles and

      But I want to put this on the agenda for the persuasion section of the proposed @dbroockman / @davidshor dialogue

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Siva Vaidhyanathan 🗽 🤘🏽‏Verified account @sivavaid Nov 2
      Replying to @BrendanNyhan @deaneckles and

      Please read this.https://global.oup.com/academic/product/cyberwar-9780190915810?cc=us&lang=en& …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Brendan Nyhan‏Verified account @BrendanNyhan Nov 2
      Replying to @sivavaid @deaneckles and

      I did. Doesn’t overcome this objection in my view. See also Identity Crisis (which I’m reading next)

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Antonio García Martínez‏Verified account @antoniogm Nov 2
      Replying to @BrendanNyhan @sivavaid and

      From @BrendanNyhan's piece. This is the right way to think about potential impact, not just bandying about absolute reach numbers which look big but aren't in the FB/TWTR context. I read Jamieson's Post piece, and the NYer review of the book you cited. I found it unconvincing.pic.twitter.com/vlrFh4m99E

      4:46 PM - 2 Nov 2018 from Seattle, WA
      • 2 Likes
      • Dean Eckles (((David Shor)))
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. Antonio García Martínez‏Verified account @antoniogm Nov 2
          Replying to @antoniogm @BrendanNyhan and

          When the FB released the first Russian reach numbers, I did a back-of-the envelope calculation of what fraction of total election media they must have been, and it was <1% (as was an estimate they eventually tweeted). The Russians were piddly-boo in the scheme of things.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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