Yes, it's confusing. But I don't understand why any self-interested miner would mine before the difficulty changes.
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Replying to @binarybits @interfluidity
Since it's the same amount of work to get a BTC or a BCH, but the BTC is worth ~5x more.
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Replying to @binarybits
but it’s not the same amount of competition. in no one else mined, your probability of actually mining the next bch block would be 1, making
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Replying to @interfluidity
Your probability of mining the next block is one but the expected time to do it might be days or weeks.
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Replying to @binarybits
your expected time is the same as it wld be with BTC, if you were mining alone there. as a miner, each block is a lottery whose odds depend…
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Replying to @interfluidity @binarybits
No, Tim's right. The chance of mining a block per CPU-minute is independent of the number of other miners.
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Replying to @anomalyuk @binarybits
your chance of mining a block is independent of other miners. but your chance of successfully mining the next block and earning the block
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reward absolutely is not independent of other miners. your work is wasted if someone else shouts BINGO! first.
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Replying to @interfluidity @binarybits
Why would I care if the block I mine is the *next* block? That doesn't matter to me at all.
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Replying to @anomalyuk @interfluidity
Right. There's always another block.
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Steve is right in the medium-term case, because that is what difficulty adjustment is for. But wrong in the short term.
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