(7 hours is the difference btw me and you, if you are in DC. so it looks like it is localizing. in which case, if correct, almost 10 hrs.)
No, Tim's right. The chance of mining a block per CPU-minute is independent of the number of other miners.
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your chance of mining a block is independent of other miners. but your chance of successfully mining the next block and earning the block
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reward absolutely is not independent of other miners. your work is wasted if someone else shouts BINGO! first.
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Why would I care if the block I mine is the *next* block? That doesn't matter to me at all.
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Right. There's always another block.
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Steve is right in the medium-term case, because that is what difficulty adjustment is for. But wrong in the short term.
End of conversation
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