Prediction: civil war after Putin's death https://twitter.com/thehill/status/888767942426583040 …
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Replying to @hradzka
Why? Various power struggles have gone on since 1991 without civil war.
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Replying to @doppelvizsla @hradzka
Succession to Putin likely like succession to Yeltsin: grandees (oligarchs then siloviki now) get together, pick a compromise candidate.
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Replying to @doppelvizsla @hradzka
Mikhail Zygar's book talks about how Putin's satraps are obliquely planning for it now, with euphemisms like "when the black swan flies."
1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
Replying to @doppelvizsla @hradzka
Isn't it a difference that now there is much more structure sustained by Putin's personal power than there was in '99? Therefore riskier?
12:02 PM - 22 Jul 2017
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