6 months later & no nukes. @gwern & I tried mightily, but @carlking never bet. Guess he didn't actually want to "cut the bullshit".
https://twitter.com/carlking/status/822128552015314945 …
Hang on, you wanted him to make a bet that would pay out in the event of nuclear war? And you don't see the catch in that offer?
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1. He's the one who first wanted to bet. 2. Over 2,000 nukes have been detonated, but we're still here. P(MAD|detonation) is small.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Trump using a single nuke doesn't mean everyone everywhere dying forever. It could only be a problem for, say, SK.
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Or it could've been a bomb test. Obviously no problems paying out then. Lots of possibilities if you think about it.
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True, but it squeezes the odds. And the value of the bet can be impacted by much less than armageddon - hyperinflation would do.
End of conversation
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