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Prikvačeni tweet
New preprint! Mitchell Schijen,
@lakens, and I compared the rate of "positive" results (i.e., confirmed hypotheses) in Registered Reports to a sample of standard (non-RR) papers in psychology. We found a *very* large difference. Thread... 1/ https://psyarxiv.com/p6e9c pic.twitter.com/eq9tjTlW4a
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Anne Scheel proslijedio/la je Tweet
This paper on Registered Reports is excellent, and it is hard to express how delighted I am to be able to update my MSc course materials on reproducibility to include work by a former student!
#fullcirclehttps://twitter.com/annemscheel/status/1225106059808903168?s=20 …
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Anne Scheel proslijedio/la je Tweet
on
@annemscheel and@lakens's new study finding that Registered Reports are about 50% likely to confirm their hypotheses, and why that faintly boring technical-sounding result is super important and starkly reveals the problems with sciencehttps://unherd.com/thepost/geek-tip-if-it-doesnt-say-registered-report-dont-trust-it/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Anne Scheel proslijedio/la je Tweet
Senior Lecturer in Psychological Sciences - come and work at
@BristolUniPsych http://www.bristol.ac.uk/jobs/find/details.html?nPostingId=64734&nPostingTargetId=181994&id=Q50FK026203F3VBQBV7V77V83&LG=UK&mask=uobext …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Anne Scheel proslijedio/la je Tweet
You know that person who writes great reviews/comments? Who you’re always wondering what they think of the latest paper you read (or wrote)? Encourage them to apply to be an Associate Editor at
@CollabraOA! All ranks & areas of psych are welcome to apply! We want a diverse team!https://twitter.com/improvingpsych/status/1224361687798534149 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Anne Scheel proslijedio/la je Tweet
In these increasingly divided times when factions that generally agree with each other are turning against each other I just want to remind people that it’s possible to see the good in both
@talyarkoni AND@lakensHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
3) I can't believe how long it took to write this up -- (transparent) science is hard. Thanks to everyone who helped with feedback and inspiration! Especially
@EmmaHendersonRR@chrisdc77@LeonidTiokhin@CharlieEbersole@StuartJRitchie@peder_isager@MaxMa1er@farid_anvari 15/15Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
2) Study is preregistered & we share all data/code/materials in a way that hopefully allows full reproducibility & replicability. I'd be thrilled if ppl used our data to look into other fun stuff - it has quotes of all coded hypotheses & conclusions! https://osf.io/aqr2s/ 14/
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1) You may have seen a previous version of our results floating around Twitter, from a conference presentation last year. The numbers changed slightly since then and should be considered outdated (small errors, replaced exclusions, revised a variable) https://twitter.com/chrisdc77/status/1106149493928538115?s=20 … 13/
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I have a whole other story to tell about an exploratory qualitative analysis we ran on the language used to describe hypothesis in RRs, but I'm tired and this'll have to wait (or why don't you go read the paper and see for yourself?
).
Final words: 12/Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
And this is important to keep in mind: We did not evaluate if RRs "work"! This is an observational study that probably contains many confounds. To get to the bottom of RR efficacy, we'd need a randomised controlled trial, or something close(r) to it. 11/
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For me personally, 43-50% positive results still sounds like too much. It could be due to the method that gives authors some wiggle room to claim support for hypotheses with disappointing results. Still, it may also mean that the RR format can't completely eradicate all bias 10/
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But what we *can* say: The positive result rate in the standard literature is incompatible with any reasonable prior probability hypotheses might have. This plot shows that standard papers would need to test >90% true hypotheses with >90% power if we don't assume bias! 9/pic.twitter.com/raG8m59k4G
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Still, even when we're looking only at novel studies, RR hypotheses might really have a lower prior: In-principle acceptance means that authors don't need to worry about getting unpublishable null results, so maybe they use RRs for riskier hypotheses. We can't rule that out. 8/
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You might say: Maybe RRs are testing hypotheses with a lower prior probability? Aren't tons of RRs just failed replications? Yes, more than half of RRs were replications, and yes, those had even fewer positive results. But the effect is still huge when we exclude them: 7/pic.twitter.com/upz4iIi73t
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Our sample from the standard literature is a direct replication of Fanelli (2010), except limited to the publication years 2013-2018. We find 96.05% positive results, confirming the sky-high success rate. Compare that to only 43.66% in RRs! 6/pic.twitter.com/9hWP82Kw2Y
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It's quick & dirty: Identify the first hypothesis (for RRs: first *preregistered* hypothesis) mentioned in the abstract or full text of each paper and code if the authors concluded that it was supported (fully or partially) or not. 5/
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So if RRs are successful at reducing pub bias and QRPs, we should expect them to have a (much) lower positive result rate than the standard literature! To test that, we used the same method as Fanelli (2010, https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0010068 …), who found 91.5% positive results in psych. 4/
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We've known that psychology has impossibly high "success rates" since the 1950s -- the literature is extremely positive, while stat. power is very mediocre. The likely explanation is that null results are either not published (pub bias) or hacked into positive results (QRPs) 3/pic.twitter.com/DdonEHgDkG
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@RegReports were designed to minimise publication bias & QRPs -- so I've been wanting to see how they do on some indicators of pub bias for ages. (As@LeonidTiokhin finds in his cool new paper, even "annoying" side effects of RRs might be beneficial! https://twitter.com/LeonidTiokhin/status/1224696129796935680?s=20 …) 2/Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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