I agree that it’s time for WHO to declare a #PHEIC given reports of shortages and hospital overcrowding and WHO can help with that, but this is an irresponsible way to present newly released data in a dynamic situation.
-
-
Prikaži ovu nit
-
Of course respiratory viruses can be transmitted by respiratory secretions. I haven’t seen any R0 estimates of 4, and the R0 is context-dependent and variable. R0 describes potential for transmission, not certainty.
Prikaži ovu nit -
Finally, we must be vigilant about this virus. But we don’t yet know that this will become a pandemic, or even that it will spread widely outside of China. Until we have evidence otherwise, PLEASE stop these “we’re all gonna die”-toned dispatches.
Prikaži ovu nit
Kraj razgovora
Novi razgovor -
-
-
I don't think she knows what R0 means. Sadly. As you say, key here is that it's (highly!) context dependent - R0 isn't some magical properly of the virus. Even if it's 2.6 (or 4.0) at the moment, that's hugely likely to change - just look at SARS.
-
You are 100% correct. It’s extremely discouraging that the most credible virology reporters are failing to communicate these critical nuances.
- Još 2 druga odgovora
Novi razgovor -
-
-
ProMED has posted all Ro estimates, by top epi teams, ranging from 1.5 to 4.0. The data is changing rapidly, so everybody is struggling. Today the MOH of China said, "The virus is becoming more infectious." I share your concern abt calm. But your attack on my integrity is unjust.
- Još 6 drugih odgovora
Novi razgovor -
-
-
It's just the cold. Everybody relax. STARBUCKS CLOSES ALL STORES, MCDONALDS CLOSES ALL STORES, 56 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED, MASKS MANDATORY, AMBASSADORS BEING RECALLED, TAIWAN HALTS ALL VISA APPLICANTS FROM CHINA. Just chill bro, listen to Angie
-
Well it's not "just the cold" since we know it does cause severe pneumonia/ARDS in some patients. But what we don't know is how transmissible it is. Definitely people should not just chill, but we also shouldn't automatically assume an imminent doomsday pandemic without evidence.
Kraj razgovora
Novi razgovor -
-
-
Obviously a gross estimate. Way too early to know r0. But this cites r0 of 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0)https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1 …
-
They “down-graded” their estimates to 2.5, just haven’t updated the pre-prints yet.
- Još 5 drugih odgovora
Novi razgovor -
Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
Twitter je možda preopterećen ili ima kratkotrajnih poteškoća u radu. Pokušajte ponovno ili potražite dodatne informacije u odjeljku Status Twittera.