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Andy Matuschak
@andy_matuschak
Remarkable results. This is the longest interval I've seen on a cash transfer RCT yet. (EA friends, do you know of a longer-range one?) Very naively: they observe an avg extra ~$5k/year; so ~$200k over a career. Benefits were $250-500/household. 20-40x return in income alone.
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Lee Crawfurd
@leecrawfurd
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New results from a 20-year follow-up on Progresa. Children whose parents received cash transfers in Mexico 20 years ago earn 15% more than those who didn't povertyactionlab.org/sites/default/
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3:16 AM · Feb 16, 2022Twitter Web App
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Andy Matuschak
@andy_matuschak
Signal-boosting other refs and caveats from
@albrgr
, whose analysis of this I trust much more than my own!
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Alexander Berger
@albrgr
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Replying to @andy_matuschak
I can't think of anything longer that is randomized off the top of my head. There are many longer term followups from non-experimental variation: nber.org/system/files/w ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P aeaweb.org/articles?id=10 aeaweb.org/articles?id=10
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Alexander Berger
@albrgr
I vaguely remember seeing a job market paper where someone followed up on the negative income tax experiments from the 1970s using IRS data from much later, but I can't seem to find it now so I might have hallucinated it.
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