Analysis of memory in learning is often framed in terms of probabilities, e.g. the chance you'll recall something on a test, which might decline over time.
This does describe the data, but it's funny how alien this is to how memory feels. It does not *feel* like a binomial draw!
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I often feel like I can "almost" remember something (but then can't), or like I "easily" remember something. Experimentally, these judgments do map to recall probabilities, but is it actually a stochastic process?
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I tend to identify more with models of forgetting which aren't truly stochastic, but which can be *described by* probabilities at a macro scale.
For instance, encoding variability theory suggests that recall depends on overlap between mental state at encoding and recall.
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Because mental states will naturally vary as you move about and think different thoughts, this naturally gives rise to a memory behavior you can describe with probabilities, but it's not like your brain is rolling dice. The "randomness" comes from behavior & the environment.
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(Encoding variability theory is also a nice potential mechanistic explanation for the spacing effect: when cramming you re-encode an item several times with the ~same mental state; when spacing, you encode it against different mental states, thus more chance for future overlap)
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I guess this is not unique to models of memory. For instance, language models often work by estimating the probability that the next word is "banana" or whatever. It's not like prose is stochastic, but probability is a useful way to capture co-occurrence.
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Perhaps only tangentially related:
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Another idle thought:
Randomness is often more constrained than is obvious.
For instance, a so-called random number generator can only generate a tiny set of numbers - the ones that fit in our computers.
Most numbers are too large to even be represented in our universe.
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There are some related phenomena:
- sometimes when failing to remember something, a few seconds later it just pops into memory!
- also, the usual dance of repeating related keywords previously mentioned in conversation (When one forgets what one was gong to say)
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Yeah sometimes things I thought I forgot pop up in hypnagogic state right B4 sleep.
Or on a run.
Actually, I think I have more thoughts/second while running than in any other activity.
Too bad most of those focus on " ugh do I still have 30 min of running left? Unreal..."
Sorry, I read "stochastic models" and my mind went to this.
Must be time for a brain break.
But seriously, a stochastic models runway show would be AWESOME!
make it happen.
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I'll drop everything and get on this.
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