Having trouble understanding SF's strategy around masking—not sure what "slowing the spread" achieves this time absent other programs. Help me steel-man?
Buying time for vaccination? 84% eligible got 1+ vaccine; ~3wks to rise from 83%; now 500 ppl/day of 126k eligible. :/
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Maybe: buying time for the ~10% of vaccinated residents who have only received one dose of their two-dose series? That could have a bigger impact in the short/medium-term than waiting for more 0->1 recipients.
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Maybe about scaling the expo to avoid hospital overflows? The SFData hospital capacity tracker stopped updating on 07/21, but this could conceivably make sense, given that hospitalizations will probably reach (at least) their January peak.
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Or is it about buying time for vaccine approval for < 12 y.o.s? I haven't heard public health officials express this argument, but on its face it makes more sense than the others. Data doesn't support this driving the decision, though: only ~7% of cases are <12 (and falling)
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Yep! I'd be more likely to find this a compelling strategy if the fraction of cases among the demographic were larger. 7% is quite small, and the next approval (expected fall) will only apply to 5+, or roughly half that number. Then not all will get vaxxed… so maybe 2-3% total?