Worried about rising infections in Israel's vaccinated population. With transmissibility this high not sure how we avoid the entire vaccinated population infected? Severity mitigated w vaccine ofc—but yikes.
reddit.com/r/slatestarcod
thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/07/15/cov
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/delta-varian
Conversation
Replying to
Awfully encouraging numbers. Though I suppose even the remarkably low 4% hospitalization rate is catastrophic if the denominator really is the entire population. (In SF, that would be ~36k people; we have ~2k hospital beds plus another ~500 "surge" beds)
Quote Tweet
I can't emphasize enough how well vaccines are working against Delta, especially preserving their > 90% effectiveness vs severe illness.
Its high transmissibility (cf prior variants) & prevalence is leading to more infections among vaccinees that are mostly w/o symptoms or mild.
Show this thread
2
1
18
Replying to
How long before a more severe vaccine-resistant strain emerges and propagates ...
1
1
This Tweet was deleted by the Tweet author. Learn more
Not unlikely at all: >50% of transmission is pre-symptomatic because viral load peaks at or shortly before symptom onset. Little fitness penalty for making carrier sicker.
All these VOC crank up the viral load -- Delta by 1000x, and also extends infectious period.
1
Replying to
Vaccinations don't make you immune to infection. Their goal is to reduce infection, yes, but also if you get it, it's a much milder case.
However, if the *hospitalizations* of the vaccinated is going up, then, of course, that's much worse. Is that data available?
2
4
Yes, I know. The surprising thing to me is that transmissibility appears to be high enough that all vaccinated people may end up infected. Certainly not what I was expecting!
To your question: hospitalizations have doubled in last month but can't find vaxx/non-vaxx breakdown.
3
11
Show replies
Replying to
Quote Tweet
It's extraordinarily rare for someone to get severely ill after vaccination, even if they do have the misfortune of getting infected.
1
The people who have chosen not to be vaccinated deserve their fate