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"What should we think about the experts? … The voice utters simple arguments about why the status quo will prevail … The voice does not issue any numerical predictions (which could be falsified) … (you cannot ask the voice what objective fact would change its mind)."
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Today's @gwern newsletter is an important read — I agree the release of GPT-3 should have made more noise (though that is probably unsurprising given recent events). gwern.substack.com/p/may-gwernnet
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I want to put on the (anti-?)record that I seem to be almost an anti-oracle on exponential processes. I was *extremely* wrong in my predictions about DL growth rates and COVID growth rates; my new policy for anything touching an exponential is to take my priors and reverse them!
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