SF case count now starting to look a little more clearly sigmoidal. I've been somewhat surprised that this hasn't flattened out more aggressively, now 15 days into shelter-in-place. Do we think that's due to testing backlog?
Conversation
Many helpful replies explaining the delay! Some plausible explanations:
- there's likely a several-day backlog for tests
- median pre-symptomatic time is 5 days but 97th %ile is 12 (!)
- hospitalized patients aren't necessarily tested on day 1