SF case count now starting to look a little more clearly sigmoidal. I've been somewhat surprised that this hasn't flattened out more aggressively, now 15 days into shelter-in-place. Do we think that's due to testing backlog?
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Everyone needs to stop thinking COVID19 numbers today are today’s numbers. They’re not. They reflect: a) transmission between 12-18 days ago, b) onset and course of illness 7-14 days ago, c) hospitalization and testing, 7-1 days ago. Strictly: the present is the past.
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Hm. I thought the median incubation time was 5 days? But it’s a good point: people won’t necessarily go to the hospital at symptom onset, and the tests will take several more days. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150748