Many helpful replies explaining the delay! Some plausible explanations: - there's likely a several-day backlog for tests - median pre-symptomatic time is 5 days but 97th %ile is 12 (!) - hospitalized patients aren't necessarily tested on day 1
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Hm. I thought the median incubation time was 5 days? But it’s a good point: people won’t necessarily go to the hospital at symptom onset, and the tests will take several more days.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150748
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This delayed flattening seems about what we should expect, given that symptoms appear up to 14 days after initial exposure? (Or maybe I'm misinterpreting what data the graph is showing?)
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My reading was that incubation period median is around 5 days.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150748
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incubation period is unclear and probably longer than 14 days.
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Oh, interesting. My reading was that it was 5 days.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150748
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I suspect R has decreased a ton but is still over 1 for certain sub-populations (e.g. employees of essential businesses).
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Also, we should expect the virus to keep spreading within families / roommates in the short term.
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I have read we have a five day testing backlog. Also, we're only testing severe cases for normal folks, so hospitalizations (14ish days from infection) are the most reliable data. I believe you are correct that median incubation is 5d, but it can range to >14
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Apologies for lack of references, but testing backlog was cited today.
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