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andy_matuschak's profile
Andy Matuschak
Andy Matuschak
Andy Matuschak
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@andy_matuschak

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Andy MatuschakVerified account

@andy_matuschak

Wonder, blunder, salve, solve! Working on tools that expand what people can think and do. Past: led R&D @KhanAcademy; helped build iOS @Apple.

San Francisco, CA
andymatuschak.org
Joined November 2007

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    Andy Matuschak‏Verified account @andy_matuschak Mar 31
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    SF case count now starting to look a little more clearly sigmoidal. I've been somewhat surprised that this hasn't flattened out more aggressively, now 15 days into shelter-in-place. Do we think that's due to testing backlog?pic.twitter.com/DAXzIzDDUj

    1:34 PM - 31 Mar 2020
    • 1 Retweet
    • 22 Likes
    • Ceasar Bautista Sam Collins Giuliano Giacaglia 💻 Dimitri Diakopoulos Javi Priya DuBois Corey Gwin 🌌🧠 as a service
    13 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
      1. Andy Matuschak‏Verified account @andy_matuschak Mar 31
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        Many helpful replies explaining the delay! Some plausible explanations: - there's likely a several-day backlog for tests - median pre-symptomatic time is 5 days but 97th %ile is 12 (!) - hospitalized patients aren't necessarily tested on day 1

        0 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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      2. Siqi Chen‏Verified account @blader Mar 31
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        Replying to @andy_matuschak

        Siqi Chen Retweeted Stephen T Casper

        https://twitter.com/theneurotimes/status/1244207552998580224?s=21 …https://twitter.com/TheNeuroTimes/status/1244207552998580224 …

        Siqi Chen added,

        Stephen T Casper @TheNeuroTimes
        Everyone needs to stop thinking COVID19 numbers today are today’s numbers. They’re not. They reflect: a) transmission between 12-18 days ago, b) onset and course of illness 7-14 days ago, c) hospitalization and testing, 7-1 days ago. Strictly: the present is the past.
        Show this thread
        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Andy Matuschak‏Verified account @andy_matuschak Mar 31
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        Replying to @blader

        Hm. I thought the median incubation time was 5 days? But it’s a good point: people won’t necessarily go to the hospital at symptom onset, and the tests will take several more days.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150748 

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Zac Wasielewski‏ @xac Mar 31
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        Replying to @andy_matuschak

        This delayed flattening seems about what we should expect, given that symptoms appear up to 14 days after initial exposure? (Or maybe I'm misinterpreting what data the graph is showing?)

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Andy Matuschak‏Verified account @andy_matuschak Mar 31
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        Replying to @xac

        My reading was that incubation period median is around 5 days.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150748 

        2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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      2. Amy "Social Distancing" Hoy‏ @amyhoy Mar 31
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        Replying to @andy_matuschak

        incubation period is unclear and probably longer than 14 days.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Andy Matuschak‏Verified account @andy_matuschak Mar 31
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        Replying to @amyhoy

        Oh, interesting. My reading was that it was 5 days.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150748 

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Adam D'Angelo‏Verified account @adamdangelo Mar 31
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        Replying to @andy_matuschak

        I suspect R has decreased a ton but is still over 1 for certain sub-populations (e.g. employees of essential businesses).

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      3. Adam D'Angelo‏Verified account @adamdangelo Mar 31
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        Replying to @adamdangelo @andy_matuschak

        Also, we should expect the virus to keep spreading within families / roommates in the short term.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Peter van Hardenberg‏ @pvh Mar 31
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        Replying to @andy_matuschak

        I have read we have a five day testing backlog. Also, we're only testing severe cases for normal folks, so hospitalizations (14ish days from infection) are the most reliable data. I believe you are correct that median incubation is 5d, but it can range to >14

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Peter van Hardenberg‏ @pvh Mar 31
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        Replying to @pvh @andy_matuschak

        Apologies for lack of references, but testing backlog was cited today.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

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