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Non peer-reviewed (AFAIK) preprint suggesting that as a result of interventions in Wuhan, R0 dropped from about ~3.9 to ~0.32, over a several week period: medrxiv.org/content/10.110

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Sek Kathiresan MD

@skathire

· Mar 15, 2020

Must read! What does it take to bring the R0 from 3.9 to below 1? Epidemiology of the 25K lab-confirmed cases in Wuhan Lots of important lessons: if in period 3, the R0 had stayed at 3.86, estimate of nearly 500K cases

medrxiv.org/content/10.110

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Andy Matuschak

@andy_matuschak

Replying to

@michael_nielsen

What an astonishing change.

1:51 AM · Mar 16, 2020Twitter Web App

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Michael is back in San Francisco, soon in Santa Fe

@michael_nielsen

Mar 16, 2020

Replying to

@andy_matuschak

Isn't it? Also encouraging that (a) it was so fast; and (b) it gives quite a bit of leeway for finding relatively less invasive ways of keeping R0 below 1!

John Carlos Baez

@johncarlosbaez

Mar 16, 2020

Of course we don't just want < 1, we want <<1. But we can probably achieve that humanely if we get our act together. Wake up, folks! If the government doesn't force us to do the right things, we have to do them ourselves.

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