How should we evaluate tools for thought? There's no simple metric, as far as I can tell. The best tools change your paradigm anyway, so your old metrics (books printed per year?) aren't what matter.
Here's one (vague, but focusing): how much meaning is unlocked on the margin?
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That is, you can talk about Mathematica's value by asking how many students use it, or if it helps their test scores, or by timing people solving problems using different tools. But its most significant value is in producing marginal profound mathematical insights.
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It's all a variant of Kay's "Sistine chapels per generation," I guess! But the marginal meaning doesn't have to be a grand edifice: Twitter's most powerful metric as a tool for thought is in creating transformative (off-platform) personal connections.
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It's not clear how to get leading indicators for any of this! As far as I can tell, you want to be on the lookout for very strange stories, like casually making an animation system in Smalltalk at age 12.
Do any of you have good leading indicator stories here?
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