It’s easy to say that newspapers or something that’s obviously going south will decline even more Question is, what’s near its peak right now — now yet declining — and will fall 90% in the next 10 years?
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The iPhone comes out in 2007 and changes the camera industry. Amazing to see a 90% decline in just 10 years after growth for decades Amazing that something can go from peak to trough in exact 10 Makes you ask- What’s the next product where this will happen?pic.twitter.com/9tMGHyYo2e
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Cars? College educations? Boxed cereal? Dear lazyweb, do your thing
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My favorite for “popular now, but obsolete in 10 years” — - parking lots - pro football - game consoles - factory farmed meat - gas stations - laptops (replaced by tablets!) - real estate agents - social networks Agree or disagree?
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And also the bottom 75% of colleges that don’t provide an education nor a brand name — but they do rack up debt Seeing a lot of bankruptcies of random colleges now and they will accelerate Via
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Social networks. Their toxicity is already being recognized, with backtracks movements around hiding likes as a key example. Realizing that the sense of community they aimed for led us to be lonelier then ever will slowly kill the industry
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SN exist today as a mix of « see how good my life is », « how much clever/cool/fun » can I appear and advertisements. Loneliness will increase and revert us back to real live interactions.
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I was a PM for consumer electronics at Amazon in 2008; 3 of our 5 best selling products at that time are in categories that don't even exist today: the Flip Cam, EeePC Netbook, and a standalone GPS for your car.
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GPS for cars is a perfect example
#garmin
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Top end smart phones are expensive enough now ($1k+) and their cameras good enough that they have swallowed (at least part of) the cost of a camera within them... a bundling of sorts. (As opposed to complete obsolescence.) Likely other stand-alone sensors in phones are similar.
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They’ve swallowed a whole bunch of hardware. It’s why complaints about their carbon footprint are daft... they replaced billions upon billions of cameras, walkmans, calculators, compasses, watches, torches etc. that would have been produced, distributed etc.
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You don't change your calculator / camera / watch / compass... every two years. They didn't drain their batteries in one day either.
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Right, the savings aren’t all in one direction, eg smartphones also contain some precious metals that those devices didn’t. But they are overwhelmingly in one direction.
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Gas stations
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Out - meta analysis based diets and nutrition recommendations. In - nutrigenomics based individual diets and cohort guidelines. Our current diets and health will look like Stone Age practices. Somewhere in here new major businesses will be born.
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Venture capital
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amazing chart
would be interesting to see the chart segmented by camera type — point-and-shoots are clearly and rightly extinct, but anecdotally, DSLRs and mirrorless seem alive, well, and growing -
Computational photography is in its infancy. DSLR and mirrorless cameras won't be able to compete in the software + silicon race.
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A few cheap sensors and lenses —enabled by SW+Si— will be able to beat large sensors and interchangeable lenses in most cases in just a few years.
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