48hrs after issuing its 4/10 “model update” the IHME model covid19.healthdata.org/united-states- overestimated U.S. covid19 deaths today 4/12 by n=331 (+21.0%), i.e., 1910 predicted v. 1579 actual (=avg. of worldometers.info/coronavirus/co + covidtracking.com/data/us-daily)
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Hoping you are correct & indeed "models" aside, the raw data are certainly trending in the direction you suggest
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IHME just proved your approach again today!
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Replying to @AlexBerenson
Alex, the IHME prediction for deaths TODAY, 4/13, was 2150. The avg. of covid tracking project & worldometer, actual deaths today =1404, so in real time, IHME already overestimated actual deaths by >50%, lending little confidence in their "new" estimate of 68K deaths by Aug 4th.