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andreasdotorg

@andreasdotorg

I'm a hacker, pretty much in the old school sense of the word. But I do know IT security too.

Joined April 2008

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    andreasdotorg‏ @andreasdotorg 18 Sep 2017

    Kann mal wer eine Modellrechnung machen, wieviel Sitze mehr die Nazis bekommen, wenn die PARTEI auf 4.9% kommt?

    9:11 AM - 18 Sep 2017
    • 6 Retweets
    • 14 Likes
    • takt Philipp Sümmermann ajuvo m4nu Mama Hörnchen Kat McKitten a_ka_es@mastodon.xyz torpidus monic2001
    11 replies 6 retweets 14 likes
      1. andreasdotorg‏ @andreasdotorg 18 Sep 2017

        Gegenprobe: wie viele Sitze verlieren die Nazis, wenn die PARTEI auf 5% kommt?

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Felix Langdòn Algêr‏ @politikundliebe 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @andreasdotorg

        Wird da etwa immer noch drüber diskutiert? 😒

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. andreasdotorg‏ @andreasdotorg 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @politikundliebe

        Ich frage für eine persönliche Gewissensentscheidung.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Simon Weiß‏ @pfadintegral 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @andreasdotorg

        davon ausgehend dass sich dadurch an der Gesamtmandatszahl nichts ändert und die AfD 10% hat, etwa 3

        0 replies 3 retweets 3 likes
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      1. joernchen‏ @joernchen 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @andreasdotorg

        Die Diskussion hatte ich gestern auch :(

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Janne Grunau‏ @jaguar_9 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @andreasdotorg

        4 Sitze bei: AFD 12% Zweitstimmen und 5 vs. 10% für Parteien die an der 5%-Hürde scheitern. Annahme: Die Partei Wähler wählen alle nicht AFD

        0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
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      2. hadez‏ @hdznrrd 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @andreasdotorg

        basierend auf prognose und zahlenfudeing komm ich auf 53 vs 50 sitze

        1 reply 2 retweets 0 likes
      3. hadez‏ @hdznrrd 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @hdznrrd @andreasdotorg

        https://bundestagswahl-2017.com/prognose/  prognose: https://staatsrecht.honikel.de/de/sitzzuteilungsrechner.htm?sitze=598&prozent=5&parteien=7&p1=16600&p2=10330&p3=4177&p4=3957&p5=3737&p6=3297&p7=1758 … 4.9% mehr stimmen fuer linke https://staatsrecht.honikel.de/de/sitzzuteilungsrechner.htm?sitze=598&prozent=5&parteien=7&p1=16600&p2=10330&p3=4177&p4=6111&p5=3737&p6=3297&p7=1758 …

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. hadez‏ @hdznrrd 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @hdznrrd @andreasdotorg

        wahlbeteiligung: 71.5% (wie letzte wahl) bei 61.5 mio wahlberechtigten

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. hadez‏ @hdznrrd 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @hdznrrd @andreasdotorg

        YMMV. statistik ist nicht mein forté und wahlfoo schon garnich

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. mercy‏ @mercy_RU 19 Sep 2017
        Replying to @andreasdotorg

        ich mag die AfD auch nicht, aber sie als Nazis zu bezeichnen spielt ihnen in die Karten der Opferrolle. Einer der Gründe für ihren "Erfolg".

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Tim Pritlove‏Verified account @timpritlove 21 Sep 2017
        Replying to @mercy_RU @andreasdotorg

        Problem ist nicht, die AfD als Nazis zu bezeichnen, denn sie sind ja welche. Die Wähler sollte man nicht Nazis nennen. Sind Steigbügelhalter

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. @yrlaNor@social.tchncs.de‏ @yrlaNor 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @andreasdotorg

        bedrohlicher wäre IMHO, wenn die grünen scheitern sollten. das müsste man auch mal durchrechnen. bei prognose CI +-3% ein mögliches szenario

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Benjamin Braatz‏ @HeptaSean 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @yrlaNor @andreasdotorg

        Der https://www.mandatsrechner.de  kann zwar keine weitere Partei, so weit ich sehe, aber Scheitern der Grünen kann er: AfD 77/675 => 79/634

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Sven Uckermann‏ @SvenUckermann 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @andreasdotorg

        Ich würde nicht strategisch wählen. Durch Prognose Irrtum kann jede Stimme zählen. Und wenn Partei auf 4.9% wäre ja ein deutliches Zeichen

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Sven Uckermann‏ @SvenUckermann 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @SvenUckermann @andreasdotorg

        Obwohl semunchu auf Staatsbesuch in der Türkei wäre was fürs pay tv

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Plusquamperfec1‏ @Plusquamperfec1 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @andreasdotorg @a_ka_es

        2

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. smiddi‏ @smiddi 18 Sep 2017
        Replying to @andreasdotorg

        Warum nicht gleich für alle Parteien, die wahrscheinlich unter 5% bleiben?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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