If we stopped all international shipping, flights, and border crossings, how much inventory do, say, food distribution companies have on hand across the world? How long / buffered are global JIT supply chains? How long would it take before food shortages started?
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Yesterday friend claimed that soon we could just simulate drugs and take them without experiments. I pointed out that this is really hard to do and would require slow experimentation to achieve; they claimed I was a luddite. Many things are possible, but take *effort* & *time*.
I am sure one can construct a pandemic-safe world. But the timescale, cost, and political capital of changing travel, business, rights are pretty big. Getting there from here in an acceptable way is interesting and nontrivial. Just proposing grand solutions are unlikely to work.
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I have a solution: wait for a pandemic that's bad but not civilization-ending. Then political capital and cost will not be a problem. Timescale will be a few years if people accept massive inconvenience, or 2 decades if people want some level of convenience.
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I have been thinking about the "warning shot - never again" idea, and I think it is unreliable. Whether people learn the right lesson from a disaster appear strongly depend on how they frame the experience, and can actually go the wrong way (evidence for this from hurricanes).
- Još 5 drugih odgovora
Novi razgovor -
Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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