Andrew WatkinsVerified account

THREAD on May 1st: In US-Taliban Doha deal, today was date all foreign troops were meant to have departed Afghanistan. Since January, Taliban warned they would strike US forces, but have waffled in their responses to the 14 April US announcement of unconditional withdrawal. /1

Today, Taliban fired rockets at Kandahar airfield, US airstrikes responded. But was hardly a massive assault on foreign forces. More muted than many expected. Meanwhile, yesterday in Logar dozens killed, over 100 wounded by car bomb. Unclaimed but almost certainly Taliban. /3

What do week's events tell us, other than that, as always, greatest victims of this war are Afghan? How to weed out the rhetoric, threats & posturing? Honestly, it's still early to say. 1) Taliban could simply be taking time to launch a coordinated series of attacks on US. /4

...2) Diplomats tell @CrisisGroup a concerted campaign to pressure Pakistan has led to efforts to press Taliban back into talks. It is a particularly worrying moment for Islamabad; chief interest is avoiding displacement crisis/ border spillover from expanded civil war. /5

Diplomatic pressure + reports of internal deliberation mean Taliban may be keeping options open for returning to talks, or at least preserving bare minimum of relations with US. That could result in lower use of certain tactics, though Logar bombing reveals a lot. /7