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Our biggest takeaway for US policymakers is that in Afghanistan, there can either be a peace process or enduring foreign military presence. Biden must choose one or other. Taliban will not remain engaged if withdraw stalls indefinitely. Purely counterterror mission infeasible. https://twitter.com/and_huh_what/status/1349342766891991040 …pic.twitter.com/VrCrSHrVrs
Several prominent voices have argued for precisely the temporary, one-time postponement of withdrawal that might work, including a precisely outlined, regionally-conscious proposal by @BRRubin for @QuincyInst:https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/01/11/biden-can-bring-troops-home-from-afghanistan-the-right-way/ …
Another proposal from @JJSchroden along similar lines, focused on what US military can & should do to prepare the Afghan security forces for a post-American future (as talks & transition are expected to drag on well beyond any feasible withdrawal date):https://www.lawfareblog.com/afghanistan-will-be-biden-administrations-first-foreign-policy-crisis …
Others (including former senior US officials) have called for less-clearly defined extensions of US presence until the Afghan peace process may be complete.
@CrisisGroup’s latest looks hard at how Taliban may view such proposals (badly; adjusting Doha deal will be precarious).pic.twitter.com/NcWppHFvlQ
US must carefully calibrate re-negotiation of Doha deal’s tenets. While it is true Taliban maintained an active & aggressive campaign of violence thru 2020, they could mount strategically critical attacks. Would US re-engage? As bad as it is, Afghan war could intensify further.
It is not that the US decides the fate of the Afghans. Biden himself is in big internal economic and political shit, and look at the Capitol footage to figure that out. The US soldiers will leave and the Afghans will settle their accounts.
"Our biggest takeaway US policymakers is that in Afghanistan, there can either be a peace process or enduring foreign military presence" This is an even bigger takeaway 4 the MEDIA like BBC who are supposed on behalf of people 2 prevent policymakers from starting/supporting wars
A settlement has to be forced on the Afghans by the regional powers and international community. The other options are bad.
Given the Talibans reluctance to stop killing civilians what is the Taliban to be expected to "give"?-- so far they have hardly shown themselves to be some "new Taliban,"foregoing terror killings, giving up killing police, providing women & girls equality,women leaders,have they?
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