So incredibly appreciative of anyone adding to the Turnout! Turnout! chorus. But, it's untrue that persuasion doesn't work & a body of gold standard evidence -- randomized controlled trials show it. Deep canvass works: https://www.vox.com/2020/1/29/21065620/broockman-kalla-deep-canvassing … (1)https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1230521220220760064 …
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Race Class Narrative has been shown to work not just in testing but on doors and in actual elections. (2)
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Even if ideological swing voters are only 5-7% of electorate (I'd argue it's slightly higher) you shift 1 out of 20 of those folks and that's 1.4% gain. We lost WI by .77% in 2016. (3)
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If there were no swing voters, we wouldn't have - for example - Sherrod Brown win in OH while Cordray lost. Ditto Tammy Baldwin with much much better margins than Evers in WI. Some voters split ticket; they're not ideologically pure. (4)
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Further, we have massive longitudinal data on individual voters and can see that they have indeed changed their party vote or split their ticket in one election. (5)
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Turnout matters - it's where I focus. (Partly because I know that turnout is persuasion - your words can't persuade if the base won't repeat, repeat, repeat, them.) But with voter suppression, disinformation & razor margins in key states, we take NO votes for granted. (6)
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Finally, we don't just have to win. We have to govern. And be in community together. We must do the hard work of countering right wing race baiting and anti-immigrant rhetoric because these lead to hate speech and hate crimes. (7)
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