I wrote about Dems’ 2020 effort in Wisconsin. They have several tasks – increase black & youth turnout; do marginally better in rural counties; turn more college white women in suburbs away from Trump. But playing field is not static. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-23/democrats-fear-more-trump-voters-in-wisconsin … 1/5
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Trump did very well with rural whites in 2016. It’s possible he could do better. “Turnout” debates often focus on Democratic constituencies – blacks, Latinos, youth. But Trump left millions of white votes on the table in 2016. 2/5
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There are about 21 million noncollege white men who didn’t vote in 2016. Around 459K noncollege white men didn’t vote in Wisconsin. Trump won noncollege white men about 3-1 in 2016. A marginal boost could be decisive in a very white state like Wisconsin. 3/5
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Trump politicizes EVERYTHING -- football, weather, brands, etc. Can he politicize white nonvoters? Social media enables Trump to reach many via friends and families. 4/5
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Trump has huge problems. His presidency is a mess. His coalition is shrinking. He polls behind Dem competitors. But his hold on white noncollege men seems sure. And there are an awful lot of them who didn't vote in 2016. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-23/democrats-fear-more-trump-voters-in-wisconsin … 5/5
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En réponse à @fdwilkinson
Vital piece! Aaaand: Testing shows that mobilizing base vs. persuading middle happens *at once* with narrative that outlines Trump's deliberate use of racial division to aid and abet plutocracy. Seehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/the-answer-to-gop-dog-whistles-democrats-should-talk-more-about-race-not-less/2018/08/22/7cfa4d3a-a184-11e8-8e87-c869fe70a721_story.html …
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And for whole story of how we put this into practice in MN: https://bravenewwordspod.com/greater-than-fear-minnesota/ … Coming to WI, and rest of midwest this time around...
Le chargement semble prendre du temps.
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