I’m definitely not an infectious disease professional of any kind but it totally makes sense that death (esp in elderly, underlying conditions, complications) are going to register much faster in these very early days while the recovered cases wait for the 7 day green light
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Odgovor korisnicima @analogist_net @dakami
(And the milder cases disproportionally not be present in the the already overburdened, heavily triaged health system at all)
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Odgovor korisnicima @analogist_net @dakami
For takes from actual infectious disease experts
@EpiEllie’s list is excellent https://twitter.com/i/lists/1220869298631200769 …1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 0 korisnika označava da im se sviđa -
Odgovor korisnicima @analogist_net @EpiEllie
What’s your take (heh) on what people are getting wrong?
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Odgovor korisniku/ci @dakami
I actually don’t have a good sense of what people in general think about the outbreak at all… Which is probably not dissimilar to the public re: infosec
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Odgovor korisniku/ci @analogist_net
I don’t have a good sense of how real the “R0==3.8” “thermonuclear epidemic” fear reaction is, or should be. That number, and China’s apparent reaction (no international conferences for six months) is ... new data and evidenced behavior.
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Odgovor korisniku/ci @dakami
Oh, definitely ignore that guy, who is not to be taken seriously. (Best people can tell he's trying to McAfee himself for a political run). R0's consistently settling down between 2 and 3 from multiple groups; China's measures no one knows whether great or counterproductive yet
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Odgovor korisniku/ci @analogist_net
What R0 was SARS?
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Odgovor korisniku/ci @dakami
Supposed to be 2-5 centered around 3 I believe
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Odgovor korisnicima @analogist_net @dakami
James Wu je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceFerris Jabr
This was from earlier in the week, when there's only been one early R0 estimatehttps://twitter.com/ferrisjabr/status/1220965339048988672?s=20 …
James Wu je dodan/na,
Ferris JabrOvjeren akaunt @ferrisjabrThe claim that "we are now faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" and that the new coronavirus is 8x as infectious as SARS is completely untrue. Even if the R0 were 3.8 that would be nowhere near a record. Here is some context w/ a range of R0s: pic.twitter.com/mESegkytXrPrikaži ovu nit0 proslijeđenih tweetova 0 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
Honestly some of the best overview guidelines I found in the 2007 community mitigation guidelines (https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425 ), which has been superceded by... a much shorter version without these rule-of-thumb figurespic.twitter.com/kLhNDmW1DY
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