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mfs getting pascal mugged left & right
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The concept of a low-probability-but-extreme-downside scenario is not some new thing. Dick Cheney used it to justify invading Iraq. If there was even a 1% chance of nuclear terrorism...well, we need to treat it as a certainty.
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Let's actually do the math. A first-generation nuclear weapon maybe kills about 50,000 people. Since there's only a 1% chance, the expected amount dead is 500. Any war is likely to kill more than 500 (didn't the actual war killed more than 10,000?) Correct decision: no war.
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