A thoughtful effort to anticipate key themes in the 2020s. Unfortunately, its first falsifiable forecast is false. People often over-predict change (e.g., Ch. 2, Expert Political Judgment). One reason: we get more credit for correctly predicting change than the boring status quohttps://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1210931176212516864 …
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PTetlock
What is false exactly?
04:11 - 29. pro 2019.
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The one certainty is that things will change more than we tend to assume.