remember when DARPA tried to sponsor a prediction market for terrorist attacks
cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITI
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everybody got really upset for purity reasons but nobody seems to have thought through the incentives
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Moral Hazards in Prediction Markets for Atrocities: Just A Game Theorist Laughing For Fifteen Straight Pages, With Illustrations
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to be fair: "Can futures markets be manipulated by adversaries?" does make an appearance.
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if by "manipulated by adversaries" they mean "cause adversaries to come into existence and start high-fiving each other" totally
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I can only imagine the face on the first person who realized that they had a DARPA-funded assassination market on their hands