pretty good illustration of why EV without bayes is bullshit tbh
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Mathematics.
You only have one button press to receive a potentially nice monetary award. Which do you press?
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it's not about bayes for me, it's that within context, it's overwhelmingly likely that I'm the butt of a practical joke, so if I press red and don't get my million, at least I can call out the experimenter on it
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normal person intuition: "hmm idk seems fucky I'll press red so they can't weasel out"
math brainworms: "haha you're dumb for not buying the premise that someone out there wants to give you $1M+ with no strings attached"
its not even math brain, its undergrad "statistics for economists and social scientists" brain. Taleb has a really good video on a similar concept
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