You could foresee Moore's law continuing without being able to foresee nm-scale fabrication
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"groundbreaking discoveries we could have never foreseen happened in the past with regularity" + rule of induction
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Replying to @io_claric @0xa59a2d
but previous to said discoveries no one could have predicted what those discoveries were or what they would enable
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I'm not saying there's nothing left to be found, I'm saying it's impossible to chart a course
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Replying to @alicemazzy @0xa59a2d
I don't think they're worrying bc they think they can actually chart a course and are trying to
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they are afraid and thus doing nervous activity to soothe self, at least for the fearmongers this is what is going on imo
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Replying to @io_claric @0xa59a2d
my point is just "once we discover Something we'll have strong AI" is putting cart before horse
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it's narrative-building, utterly meaningless. we have no idea what's out there, no idea what's possible
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as if rutherford disproving the plum pudding model led to him thinking "ah! soon the atom bomb will be in reach"
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we have no idea what's out there
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Replying to @alicemazzy @0xa59a2d
and that should frighten AI researchers, it currently doesn't but it will soon, if akira succeeds
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