If you are not up late worrying about AI, if you haven't begun to prepare for the end, if you do not fear the face of SHODAN, I have failed.
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either Something Big is discovered that radically alters the playing field, or it doesn't, in which case it doesn't happen
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I'm not saying that can't occur, I'm saying whether it will occur is at this time unknowable
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strong point. but, is it really unknowable or is it just hard to predict? for instance, on a market for predictions of some kind
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market solution works only if some subset of participants have knowledge of the outcome
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otherwise it's random guessing
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frustrating, since some sum of humans "knows" the answer as a whole, but can't gather huge data or make complex multidimensional inferences…
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if only we had any entities that had these capabilities...
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regression models don't work if the thing you're trying to predict isn't well defined
End of conversation
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