If you are not up late worrying about AI, if you haven't begun to prepare for the end, if you do not fear the face of SHODAN, I have failed.
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There's a pattern of innovations that seems to be picking up speed. I am guilty of extrapolation, but only this!
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I'm saying incrementing on what we know now isn't going to get us there
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either Something Big is discovered that radically alters the playing field, or it doesn't, in which case it doesn't happen
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I'm not saying that can't occur, I'm saying whether it will occur is at this time unknowable
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strong point. but, is it really unknowable or is it just hard to predict? for instance, on a market for predictions of some kind
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market solution works only if some subset of participants have knowledge of the outcome
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otherwise it's random guessing
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frustrating, since some sum of humans "knows" the answer as a whole, but can't gather huge data or make complex multidimensional inferences…
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we can foresee the event of "a groundbreaking new method occurred that none of us foresaw" tho, I think is the arg
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you can't, by definition
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You could foresee Moore's law continuing without being able to foresee nm-scale fabrication
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"groundbreaking discoveries we could have never foreseen happened in the past with regularity" + rule of induction
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but previous to said discoveries no one could have predicted what those discoveries were or what they would enable
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I'm not saying there's nothing left to be found, I'm saying it's impossible to chart a course
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I don't think they're worrying bc they think they can actually chart a course and are trying to
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and most of the "cutting edge" as it stands is throwing more hardware at techniques developed in the 1980s
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